Top Novices’ Hurdle – 10 Year Trends
The Top Novices’ Hurdle is a Grade 1 National Hunt hurdle which is run at Aintree during the Grand National Festival. The current sponsor is Betway.
This year’s race will be held on Friday 8th April 2022
The Top Novices’ Hurdle often features horses which ran previously in the Supreme Novices Hurdle.
This race is open to is open to horses aged four years old and over. It is run at Aintree over a distance of about 2 miles and ½ furlong. During the race there are nine hurdles to be negotiated.
Previous Winners of the Top Novices’ Hurdle
| Date | Track | Distance | Going | Runners | Winner | Stallion | Age | Jockey (Clm) | Trainer | Odds | Weight | OR | Days |
| 9.04.2021 | Aintree | 2m½f | Good To Soft | 10 | Belfast Banter (IRE) | Jeremy (USA) | 6 | Sexton, K C | Fahey, Peter | 9/1 | 11-4 | 135 | 21d |
| 5.04.2019 | Aintree | 2m½f | Soft | 7 | Felix Desjy (FR) | Maresca Sorrento (FR) | 6 | Kennedy, J W | Elliott, Gordon | 7/2 | 11-4 | 146 | 24d |
| 13.04.2018 | Aintree | 2m½f | Soft | 13 | Lalor (GER) | Its Gino (GER) | 6 | Johnson, Richard | Woollacott,s Kayley | 14/1 | 11-4 | 133 | 62d |
| 7.04.2017 | Aintree | 2m½f | Good | 9 | Pingshou (IRE) | Definite Article | 7 | Power, R M | Tizzard, C L | 16/1 | 11-4 | 133 | 24d |
| 8.04.2016 | Aintree | 2m½f | Soft | 11 | Buveur Dair (FR) | Crillon (FR) | 5 | Fehily, Noel | Henderson, N J | 11/4 | 11-4 | 152 | 24d |
| 10.04.2015 | Aintree | 2m½f | Good To Soft | 11 | Cyrus Darius | Overbury (IRE) | 6 | Hughes, Brian | Jefferson, J M | 8/1 | 11-4 | 141 | 17d |
| 4.04.2014 | Aintree | 2m½f | Good To Soft | 10 | Josses Hill (IRE) | Winged Love (IRE) | 6 | Geraghty, B J | Henderson, N J | 6/4 | 11-4 | 148 | 24d |
| 5.04.2013 | Aintree | 2m½f | Good To Soft | 4 | My Tent Or Yours (IRE) | Desert Prince (IRE) | 6 | McCoy, A P | Henderson, N J | 4/11 | 11-4 | 158 | 24d |
| 13.04.2012 | Aintree | 2m½f | Good | 12 | Darlan | Milan | 5 | McCoy, A P | Henderson, N J | 7/4 | 11-4 | 148 | 31d |
| 8.04.2011 | Aintree | 2m½f | Good | 13 | Topolski (IRE) | Peintre Celebre (USA) | 5 | Jacob, Daryl | Arbuthnot, D W P | 11/2 | 11-4 | 145 | 19d |
Horses
Due to the conditions of the race no horse can run in the Top Novices’ Hurdle more than once.
Course Form
The table shows the number of times the 100 horses, who have run in the Top Novices’ Hurdle during the last 10 years, had previously run at Aintree.
7 of the last 10 winners had previously never run at Aintree.
| Course Runs | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| 0 | 89 | 7 | 7.87 | -36.75 | 21 | 23.6 |
| 1 | 11 | 3 | 27.27 | 9.11 | 6 | 54.55 |
Winning Distance Form
The table shows the number of times the 100 horses, who have run in the Top Novices’ Hurdle during the last 10 years, had previously won over a similar distance.
7 of the last 10 winners had previously won at the distance at least once.
| Distance Wins | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| 0 | 56 | 3 | 5.36 | -21.25 | 13 | 23.21 |
| 1 | 36 | 6 | 16.67 | 0.25 | 11 | 30.56 |
| 2 | 6 | 1 | 16.67 | -4.64 | 3 | 50 |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
Winning Going Form
The table shows the number of times the 100 horses, who have run in the Top Novices’ Hurdle during the last 10 years, have previously won a race with a similar going description.
7 winners had won on similar going at least once.
| Going Wins | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| 0 | 48 | 1 | 2.08 | -33 | 13 | 27.08 |
| 1 | 39 | 6 | 15.38 | 9.75 | 9 | 23.08 |
| 2 | 6 | 2 | 33.33 | -0.14 | 3 | 50 |
| 3 | 5 | 1 | 20 | -2.25 | 2 | 40 |
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
Trainers
Winners
7 trainers have saddled a winner of the Top Novices’ Hurdle in the last 10 years.
Nicky Henderson has been the most successful training 4 of those winners.
| Trainer | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| Henderson, N J | 14 | 4 | 28.57 | -3.64 | 6 | 42.86 |
| Jefferson, J M | 2 | 1 | 50 | 7 | 2 | 100 |
| Elliott, Gordon | 2 | 1 | 50 | 2.5 | 1 | 50 |
| Tizzard, C L | 5 | 1 | 20 | 12 | 2 | 40 |
| Woollacott,s Kayley | 1 | 1 | 100 | 14 | 1 | 100 |
| Arbuthnot, D W P | 1 | 1 | 100 | 5.5 | 1 | 100 |
| Fahey, Peter | 1 | 1 | 100 | 9 | 1 | 100 |
Places (includes wins)
17 trainers have been responsible for the 27 horses to make the frame in the last 10 years.
| Trainer | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| Henderson, N J | 14 | 4 | 28.57 | -3.64 | 6 | 42.86 |
| Mullins, W P | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 3 | 75 |
| Jefferson, J M | 2 | 1 | 50 | 7 | 2 | 100 |
| Tizzard, C L | 5 | 1 | 20 | 12 | 2 | 40 |
| Nicholls, P F | 8 | 0 | 0 | -8 | 2 | 25 |
| Elliott, Gordon | 2 | 1 | 50 | 2.5 | 1 | 50 |
| Shanahan, John Patrick | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| Channon, M R | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| Ferguson, J P | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 1 | 25 |
| Woollacott,s Kayley | 1 | 1 | 100 | 14 | 1 | 100 |
| Arbuthnot, D W P | 1 | 1 | 100 | 5.5 | 1 | 100 |
| Jardine, I | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| Moore, G L | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 33.33 |
| King, A | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 33.33 |
| Fahey, Peter | 1 | 1 | 100 | 9 | 1 | 100 |
| Byrne, Sean | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| Scudamore, M J | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
Age
All of the last 10 winners of the Top Novices’ Hurdle have been aged between 5 and 7 years old.
| Age | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -6 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 43 | 3 | 6.98 | -30 | 11 | 25.58 |
| 6 | 40 | 6 | 15 | 2.36 | 11 | 27.5 |
| 7 | 8 | 1 | 12.5 | 9 | 4 | 50 |
| 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 33.33 |
Sex
All of the winners of the Top Novices’ Hurdle in the previous 10 years have been geldings.
Just 3 mare has run and 2 were placed.
Headgear
9 of the winners of the Top Novices’ Hurdle and 26 of the 27 horses to make the frame in the last 10 years have been without headgear.
| Headgear | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| None | 90 | 9 | 10 | -22.14 | 26 | 28.89 |
| Hood | 8 | 1 | 12.5 | -3.5 | 1 | 12.5 |
| Cheekpieces | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Visor | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
Official Rating (OR)
The following table shows the official rating of every placed horse in the Top Novices’ Hurdle over the last 10 years.
7 of the last 10 winners had a rating of between 133 and 148.
| OR | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| 0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | -18 | 1 | 5.56 |
| 133 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 27 | 2 | 40 |
| 134 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
| 135 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 40 |
| 136 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 33.33 |
| 137 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 1 | 20 |
| 138 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| 140 | 9 | 0 | 0 | -9 | 2 | 22.22 |
| 141 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 7 | 2 | 100 |
| 142 | 9 | 0 | 0 | -9 | 2 | 22.22 |
| 144 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 1 | 20 |
| 145 | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 3.5 | 2 | 66.67 |
| 146 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 0.5 | 3 | 75 |
| 147 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 33.33 |
| 148 | 4 | 2 | 50 | 1.25 | 2 | 50 |
| 151 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| 152 | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 0.75 | 2 | 66.67 |
| 158 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 0.36 | 1 | 100 |
8 of the last 10 winners were within 11lb of the top rated.
| OR Rank | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| TopRated | 11 | 5 | 45.45 | 5.86 | 6 | 54.55 |
| 1 lower | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 33.33 |
| 2 lower | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 3 | 60 |
| 3 lower | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 33.33 |
| 4 lower | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 lower | 6 | 1 | 16.67 | -1.5 | 2 | 33.33 |
| 7 lower | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 33.33 |
| 8 lower | 8 | 0 | 0 | -8 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 lower | 2 | 1 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 50 |
| 10 lower | 8 | 0 | 0 | -8 | 2 | 25 |
| 11 lower | 4 | 1 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 50 |
| 12 lower | 8 | 0 | 0 | -8 | 1 | 12.5 |
| 13 lower | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 lower | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 lower | 4 | 1 | 25 | 13 | 1 | 25 |
| 16 lower | 1 | 1 | 100 | 14 | 1 | 100 |
Official ratings are produced by the British Horseracing Board.
Starting Price (SP)
The table shows the starting price odds of all placed horses in the Top Novices’ Hurdle for the last 10 years.
The winners range from 4/11 (1.36) to 16/1 (17.00).
12 of the 27 horses to make the frame returned a SP 7/1 (8.00) or higher.
| SP | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| 1.36 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 0.36 | 1 | 100 |
| 2.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| 2.50 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 1.5 | 1 | 100 |
| 2.75 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 0.75 | 1 | 50 |
| 3.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 50 |
| 3.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 33.33 |
| 3.75 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 1.75 | 2 | 100 |
| 4.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| 4.50 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 2.5 | 1 | 50 |
| 5.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 33.33 |
| 5.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 66.67 |
| 6.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| 6.50 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 5.5 | 1 | 100 |
| 8.00 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 2 | 40 |
| 9.00 | 10 | 1 | 10 | -1 | 1 | 10 |
| 10.00 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 40 |
| 13.00 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 1 | 20 |
| 15.00 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 2 | 50 |
| 17.00 | 7 | 1 | 14.29 | 10 | 1 | 14.29 |
| 26.00 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 1 | 20 |
| 34.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 33.33 |
| 41.00 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 1 | 20 |
Position in Betting Market
3 outright favourites have won the Top Novices’ Hurdle in the last 10 years. 6 of the last 10 winners and 18 of the 27 to make the frame came from the first 3 in the betting market.
| Pos Betting | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| Clear Top | 8 | 3 | 37.5 | -1.39 | 6 | 75 |
| Joint Top | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 2 | 50 |
| Clear Second | 7 | 2 | 28.57 | 3.25 | 6 | 85.71 |
| Joint Second | 2 | 1 | 50 | 2.5 | 1 | 50 |
| Clear Third | 7 | 0 | 0 | -7 | 1 | 14.29 |
| Joint Third | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 0 |
| Clear Fourth | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 2 | 40 |
| Joint Fourth | 5 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 2 | 40 |
| Clear Fifth | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 0 |
| Joint Fifth | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 0 |
| Clear Sixth | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 14 | 1 | 33.33 |
| Joint Sixth | 6 | 0 | 0 | -6 | 0 | 0 |
| Clear Seventh | 5 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 2 | 40 |
| Clear Eighth | 7 | 0 | 0 | -7 | 2 | 28.57 |
| Joint Eighth | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 50 |
| Clear Ninth | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 0 |
| Joint Ninth | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
| Clear Tenth | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
| Joint Tenth | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 50 |
| Eleventh or Worse | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
| Clear Bottom | 8 | 0 | 0 | -8 | 0 | 0 |
| Joint Bottom | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 0 |
Days Since Last Run (DSLR)
8 of the previous 10 Top Novices’ Hurdle winners had their latest run between 16 and 25 days ago.
| DSLR | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| 11-15 days | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
| 16-20 days | 8 | 2 | 25 | 7.5 | 2 | 25 |
| 21-25 days | 22 | 6 | 27.27 | 17.11 | 10 | 45.45 |
| 26-30 days | 16 | 0 | 0 | -16 | 2 | 12.5 |
| 31-45 days | 28 | 1 | 3.57 | -25.25 | 8 | 28.57 |
| 46-60 days | 10 | 0 | 0 | -10 | 2 | 20 |
| 61-75 days | 2 | 1 | 50 | 13 | 1 | 50 |
| 76-90 days | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| 91-120 days | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
| 121-150 days | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| 151-180 days | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 2 | 50 |
Last Run Placing (LR)
The table shows the break down of the last run placing for the previous 10 runnings of the Top Novices’ Hurdle
7 of the last 10 winners had finished in the first 3 on their previous outing.
| LR | Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% |
| No Run | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
| First | 36 | 3 | 8.33 | -10.5 | 9 | 25 |
| Second | 19 | 3 | 15.79 | -12.39 | 7 | 36.84 |
| Third | 9 | 1 | 11.11 | -5.25 | 2 | 22.22 |
| Fourth | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 33.33 |
| Fifth | 5 | 1 | 20 | -0.5 | 3 | 60 |
| Sixth | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 2 | 40 |
| Eighth | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 |
| Ninth | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tenth | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 14 | 1 | 33.33 |
| Eleventh | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Twelfth | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
| Thirteenth | 1 | 1 | 100 | 14 | 1 | 100 |
| Fifteenth | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fell | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
| Pulled Up | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
| Unseated Rider | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
One Stop Ratings
7 of the last 10 winners of the